As I have mentioned previously, after months of chest thumping by the Big Ten, they are having a very subpar year. The SEC is clearly the dominant force in the FBS this year, and it really isn't very close. Oregon, Ohio State, and Indiana have all shown weaknesses. And the teams that were supposed to be next in line, Michigan, USC, Penn State, Washington, have looked far worse than anticipated. It seems unlikely at this point that the Big Ten will bring home a fourth straight title.

In fact, the odds for winning the title according to the computer break down as follows:

• SEC: 44%
• Notre Dame: 26%
• Big Ten: 24%
• Rest of FBS: 6%

The Big Ten is solidly in 2nd place in my conference ratings, and doesn't look likely to move up or down.

The ACC and Big 12 are in a tight race for 3rd. It could still easily go either way. The ACC currently leads the race, but the postseason results will likely decide which conference comes out on top.

Same for the race for 5th between the American and Pac-12. It is very tight, but the American leads by just a tiny bit. This is a good showing for the Pac-12, because based on last year's records for the current teams, they shouldn't be even close to the American. The Pac-12 clearly wants to re-establish itself as a Power 5 conference. It has work to do but is at least heading in the right direction.

Conference USA is by far the worst FBS conference. In fact, two FCS conferences, the MVFC and UAC, currently rank higher. Not good.

It's time to start the undefeated watch. The list as of today:

• Alabama Crimson Tide
• BYU Cougars
• Cincinnati Bearcats
• Duke Blue Devils
• Florida Gators
• Georgia Bulldogs
• Indiana Hoosiers
• Iowa Hawkeyes
• James Madison Dukes
• Miami Hurricanes
• Mississippi State Bulldogs
• Nebraska Cornhuskers
• North Dakota State Bison
• Notre Dame Fighting Irish
• Pittsburgh Panthers
• South Florida Bulls
• Texas Longhorns
• Texas Tech Red Raiders
• UCLA Bruins
• UMass Minutemen
• Utah Utes
• Virginia Tech Hokies

There are some surprising names on this list. October has big games for most of them. The list will be quite a bit shorter by the end of the month.

Down to 94 teams still making the playoffs in the computer simulations. Newly removed this week:

• #101 Boston College Eagles (2-2)
• #114 California Golden Bears (2-2)
• #150 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (1-3)
• #100 Colorado State Rams (2-2)
• #121 Florida International Panthers (2-2)
• #131 Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (2-2)
• #167 Missouri State Bears (1-3)
• #126 Navy Midshipmen (1-2)
• #111 Old Dominion Monarchs (1-3)
• #159 Sam Houston State Bearkats (1-3)
• #103 South Alabama Jaguars (2-2)
• #132 Troy Trojans (2-2)
• #119 UConn Huskies (2-2)
• #116 Washington State Cougars (1-3)

Complete list:

• #163 Akron Zips
• #107 Arkansas Razorbacks
• #133 Arkansas State Red Wolves
• #173 Ball State Cardinals
• #101 Boston College Eagles
• #164 Bowling Green Falcons
• #169 Buffalo Bulls
• #114 California Golden Bears
• #216 Charlotte 49ers
• #150 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
• #100 Colorado State Rams
• #146 Eastern Michigan Eagles
• #121 Florida International Panthers
• #129 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
• #183 Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
• #110 Jacksonville State Gamecocks
• #147 Kennesaw State Owls
• #130 Kent State Golden Flashes
• #127 Miami (OH) RedHawks
• #131 Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
• #167 Missouri State Bears
• #126 Navy Midshipmen
• #144 Nevada Wolf Pack
• #201 New Mexico State Aggies
• #202 Northern Illinois Huskies
• #111 Old Dominion Monarchs
• #207 Sacramento State Hornets
• #159 Sam Houston State Bearkats
• #142 San Diego State Aztecs
• #120 San Jose State Spartans
• #103 South Alabama Jaguars
• #162 Southern Miss Golden Eagles
• #117 Stanford Cardinal
• #142 Syracuse Orange
• #132 Troy Trojans
• #123 UAB Blazers
• #119 UConn Huskies
• #257 UL Monroe Warhawks
• #140 UNLV Rebels
• #136 Utah State Aggies
• #185 UTEP Miners
• #116 Washington State Cougars
• #157 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
• #166 Wyoming Cowboys

My Solid Verbal Top 12 this week.

1. Texas - this seems tenuous. Their inconsistency on offense is going to cost them a game at some point.
2. Notre Dame
3. Georgia
4. Ohio State - the Buckeyes drop a spot. Their inconsistency on defense is going cost them another game at some point.
5. Miami
6. Indiana
7. Florida - welcome to the party, Gators.
8. Alabama
9. Utah
10. Ole Miss
11. Texas Tech
12. Oregon - the rumors of the death of Oregon football appear to have been exaggerated. Neither Oklahoma State nor Boise State have lost since their games against the Ducks.

As I have said before, I am including FCS football in my rankings for 2026. This has nearly doubled the number of teams from 136 to 266. But there are other noteworthy changes which will affect the rankings. This is another big year for conference realignment.

CJB Ratings, AKA Sports Ratings III, is a data-driven analytics platform designed to evaluate teams, project future performance, and provide transparent, reproducible rating systems across multiple sports. We currently do three sports:

• NCAA FBS College Football
• NCAA Division I Men's College Basketball
• NFL football

Watch this space for more information about what's available and what's coming!